Forecaster
T1 · Markets & execution$150top rate per hour
Posted by SimRealsimreal.co · feeds Future Prediction Bench
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About the role
You will set the bar for forecasts that are scored by the world. Base rates, update discipline and calibration on live events that resolve after the question is asked.
What you will do
- Writing forecasting questions with unambiguous resolution
- Setting human baselines on live event feeds
- Reviewing agent forecasts for calibration, not just accuracy
- Designing questions a model cannot answer from memory
Who we are looking for
- Calibration: A public forecasting record you can link to
- Base rates: You start from reference classes, not stories
- Update discipline: You move on evidence, and you can say how much
- Clarity: You write questions that resolve without argument
Credential
Top-ranked on Metaculus, Good Judgment or a prediction market.
Pay
Up to $150 an hour for this role. Each role shows its top hourly rate, from up to $40 for generalist review to up to $300 for portfolio managers. Your starting rate depends on your credentials; sustained quality moves you towards the top rate. Joining the waitlist is not an offer of work; rates are agreed in writing before any project starts.
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